Indigenous demographics meets provincial fiscal reality

For the fourth year in a row Maclean’s presents its year-end Chartapalooza, your guide to making sense of the economy in the year ahead: The 91 most important economic charts to watch in 2018. Tulo Centre's Dr. Andre Le Dressay's chart (seen below) was included. 

Capture.JPG

"This chart is intended to show how two indigenous demographic facts are colliding with a looming Canadian fiscal reality. First, the indigenous population has grown 4.5 times faster than the rest of Canada in the last 10 years. Second, the indigenous labor force has grown 6.9 times faster over the same period. This contrast with the parliamentary budget office’s projection of an unstainable (for most provinces) 124 percentage increase in total provincial deficits over the next 20 years. This means first that the fiscal sustainability of Canada’s future social programs is rather dependent on the future productivity of the indigenous labor force. Second it means that the any increase in federal transfers to indigenous governments to catch up to national service standards is probably not fiscally sustainable given the future fiscal requirements of the provinces. As my colleague Greg Richard said, Canada can soon no longer afford to run the lives of indigenous people. Perhaps 2018 could be the indigenous policy fiscal tipping point for Canada. If this is correct than Canada should support a more jurisdiction based fiscal relationship with indigenous governments characterized by a connection between more independent indigenous fiscal powers and responsibilities. And Canada should shift more responsibilities to indigenous led institutions and governments over education, health, infrastructure, children and other services."